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Celestial Forecasting and the Babylonians

My first guest post! Originally this was an essay written by my dad some time ago for one of his university classes: The History of Science.

Is “Celestial Forecasting” a fair description of the activities of the Babylonians?

Our contemporary ideas about the structure of the universe spring from a theoretical tradition which leads back, not to Babylon, but to Greece…

S. Toulmin and J. Goodfield

This essay will argue the case that the Babylonians; as far as the known evidence is concerned, never formed any speculative theories about the cosmos. And that the extent of their activities can only be understood and described as Celestial Forecasting.

Toulmin and Goodfield (1963) suggest that “Before man can build a successful theory in any field of science they must be clear what it is that requires explanation”, it is apparent, from the archaeological evidence of the many tablets written in cuneiform unearthed in Mesopotamia, the absence of any instance where the Babylonians posed or advanced any theories of the cosmos, that were not limited to explanations of gods and myths. What has emerged is however; that over many hundreds of years, the development of a sophisticated mathematical system, eventually enabled them to make fairly accurate computations of the positions of the Sun, Moon and other known planets for considerable years in advance. Toulmin and Goodfield. (1963, p.34.). It was this system; appropriated by the Greeks, during the Seleucid period, which eventually led to a scientific convention of doing astronomy. Neugebauer. (1945, p.8 ).

The geographical location of Babylon predisposed it to invasion from warmongering tribes, and unpredicted flooding from the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. Famine, pestilence, earthquakes, all contributed to the instability and uncertainness to the fabric of its society. The overwhelming conclusion for the Babylonian was that the gods, who had authority over man, were metering out retribution for some offence that man had committed. And, in response to this, a system of augury (the inspection of animal entrails) was instituted to foresee how favourable future conditions might be. In time this led to a judicial astrology, where celestial phenomena were observed to establish the imminent future and prospects of the country, its government, and the king. Neugebauer. (1945, p.8 ).

In an attempt at explanation of the recurrent phenomena: the lunar phases, the position of the sun relative to the seasons, eclipses, etcetera; none were explicable to the point of illumination of what the celestial spheres were or why they behaved as they do. The Babylonians contented themselves with occult interpretations and never ventured at a more logical and physical interpretation. Toulmin and Goodfield (1963, p. 27). Leo Oppenheim, even goes as far as saying, that the Babylonians did not practise astrology in the true sense of the word, but were merely diviners “observing the celestial signs”. However, this observing, and documentation of the heavens, when in the domain of the Greeks, would eventually lead to a breakthrough that would have a significant influence on the future understanding of the universe.

As has been implied, the Babylonian culture was implicitly linked to their religion through tradition. The gods had dominion over men; it was they who determined the course of events, benevolently or otherwise. Initially as the fates of men unfolded, the priest of the realm would offer up a sacrifice as an act of supplication, trying to appropriate a favourable response from the gods for the good of the kingdom. Olson (1940, p. 39 ). Then slowly, the phenomena surrounding each meaningful event was observed and documented, with associations being made with the condition of the components observed: a violent storm occurred when the crops failed, an invasion from locust was preceded by an invading army, the king died when a dog barked in the middle of the night, or several of the new spring lambs were born deformed after an earthquake. This type of phenomena was eventually superseded by the reading of the entrails of sacrificial animals; (though not entirely forsaken,) for signs of portentous fortunes. Likewise, this paved the way for observation in the heavens: haloes around the moon, intense heat from the sun, the colour red of the planet Mars, as examples.

If it is true that the celestial gods control certain events by their actions, and if it is also true that the celestial gods are repetitive in their behaviour (i.e., that the motion of the heavenly bodies is periodic, or cyclical), then it ought to be true that if a certain event followed once from a certain behaviour of a heavenly god, it might well occur again when the god’s behaviour repeats.”

Olson (1940, p. 42)

It was at this point that the Babylonians began to incorporate their mathematical abilities into their scenarios. No longer would it be necessary to rely on “…sacrificial lambs.., nor even from the particular god to whom it is offered…” for knowledge of events could be gained directly from the stars. Olson (1940,p.41). In their wisdom, the Babylonians believed that they had cracked the combination, and gained an insight into the activities and the actions of the gods. The mystery and fate of men was written in the skies. From now on they would plot the course of the stars and planets years in advance, enabling them to not only decipher the signs, but make predictions as well.

It is plain from the above that the Babylonians went from observation to prediction, but there is no attempt at explanation. The new vistas of celestial insights allowed for a more technical endeavour mathematically, but added nothing to a real understanding of the way the universe works. Their approach permitted the construction of a calendar and record keeping, which was incorporated into their religious and secular lives; which were closely knitted together, and brought about a semblance of organisation and order to the empire, but other than that (in its self an incredible feat) there was no more utilitarian content. Olson (1940, p.34).

Stephen Toulmin in his book Foresight and Understanding declares “forecasting as a craft of technology, an application of science rather than the kernel of science itself.” If one considers that aspects of Babylonian astrology, that is all you have, a craft, a complicated mathematical system, which gathers mathematical facts relevant to the position of the stars and planets, a “forecasting-technique” that “will not necessarily become scientific, just because it works”. Toulmin (1961,p.36). It is useful, but no more so than making: charcoal, inventing a plough, or building a canal. It is only when an explanation of why wood turns to charcoal, or when you have an understanding of the production of carbon through the process of heating, can you say you have something more than a craft. Being able to predict, by no means, warrants understanding of the phenomena. To be scientific is to formulate a theory, to probe, to be critical and enquiring, why did such an event happen? What were the circumstances? Why those patterns? To be able to test what ever notions you have, and shape the ideas to conform to what is revealed. Toulmin (1961, p.45).

To surmise then, what do we have? Mesopotamia, a turbulent and violent region. A land where a civilization grew out of conflict and change. From the primitive to the cultured sophistication of a seemingly advanced nation. An area where religion and mythology blended together as part of the national identity. A place where, inanely, superstition held sway over the minds of man. The gods were in charge, wielding power over mortals. Out of desperation, the sagacious priests of god, sought guidance from them by way of magic. First by reading the signs in nature. Then by way of confirmation, an examination of the entrails of sacrificed lambs. Eventually they turned their attention to the sky; the abode of the gods. For it was there, they had come to believe, it was written in the stars, the fate of man. By applying their sophisticated system of computational mathematics they plotted the course of the planets and stars, which eventually led to the ability of prediction (forecasting). Now it was in there power, not only to interpret what the gods had in store for them, but also the power to predict a future outcome, for years in advance.

Sadly, even though this all sounds incredible, it added nothing to our understanding of how the universe behaved. It is merely subjective speculation, a fantasy, without any foundational truth attached to it apart from the ability to calculate the positions of the celestial spheres. They amassed a wealth of documented observations, spent many hundreds of years watching and calculating the movements in the sky. But incredulously, the Babylonians never ask the question why do the heavens move as the do? Or, what are they made of? It was not until the Greeks came along and appropriated the data, that we begin to have any fitting theories about the cosmos.

In this essay it has been my intention to argue the case, that “Celestial Forecasting” is a fair description of the activities of the Babylonians. I set about achieving this by surveying briefly the history of Babylon.

Ged Duffy

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